NUTRIAD’S United States 30 Day Outlook (October 2018)
Author & Forecaster: Thomas Novak of Novak Weather Consultants
In general, the Jet Stream steering winds will bisect the United States from southwest to northeast from the desert southwest to the Great Lakes region. This upper air jet stream pattern will separate cool and wet conditions over much of the northern and western U.S. from warm and dry conditions over the southeastern ¼ of the U.S.
This jet stream pattern will continue to enhance a ridge over the southeastern U.S. that was established last month. In turn, the main storm track will continue to sit right across the heart of the U.S. basically from the central Rockies northeast into the Great Lakes.
A cool and wet October is expected over much of this region as several storm systems are expected to track near or just south of the area. Those that have received plenty of moisture lately, such as southern Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska, will continue to receive healthy rains. The good news is that drought stricken areas of North and South Dakota are likely to receive some much needed rains and snows.
A strong ridge is expected to expand across this region promoting a dry and warm October, especially during the first half of the month. Temperatures will often average a good 10 to 20 degrees above normal with only scattered rains expected. Much of this region has received soaking rains over the last several months which will keep any impacts from dry weather at a minimum. Keep in mind that tropical systems are not factored into this outlook.
The dry trend continues in this region as a strong ridge builds overhead. Some drought conditions are starting to take hold, especially in Alabama and Georgia; these conditions will likely worsen as we head through October. Drought conditions may also develop over portions of South Carolina and northern Florida. Temperatures will continue to soar above average much of the month with 80s and 90s being the rule, especially during the first ½ of the month. Keep in mind that tropical systems are not factored into this outlook.
Special Note: Good news! Drought conditions are decreasing over much of this region and that trend should continue in October.
The storm track will be situated over much of this region during October especially as you head further north from the Gulf Coast states. Drought stricken areas of Missouri and Kansas are expected to receive healthy and potentially flooding rains. Meanwhile, there will be a sharp contrast in temperatures from west to east as an active jet stream separates colder air over the Rockies from warmer air over the Gulf Coast.
Published on Nutriad website 11/11/18